In brief
- Annual inflation declined for the second consecutive month to 52.8% in February 2023, albeit in dribs and drabs over the past two months.
- The decline in the year-on-year inflation was aided by moderation in price pressures for food items, although this was partly offset by an uptick in transport inflation in the month under review.
- We view the stable Cedi in recent weeks as favourable for lower energy prices with a potential to cap the upside scope for transport inflation and trigger a downturn in non-food inflation in the near-term.
- We also expect the benefit of a higher base effect to kickstart in March 2023 and intensify over the next 6-months. Consequently, we perceive scope for a faster decline in headline inflation over the next few months, potentially dropping below 50% in March 2023 and towards the high-30% area by mid-year.
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