Ghana

• The GSE-CI inched up by 0.1% w/w to settle at 6,101.1 points last week, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 24.8% and 5.8% respectively. The index advance was underpinned by gains in SIC Insurance Co, Ghana Oil Company and Standard Chartered Bank Ghana.
• Aggregate market turnover surged by 30.9% w/w to USD 1.2mn, with Standard Chartered Bank Ghana dominating trading activity, accounting for 46.1% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a 3:1 ratio. SIC Insurance Co (+20.0% w/w | GHS 0.60) led the gainers’ chart, while Calbank Plc (-2.8% w/w | GHS 0.70) was the sole laggard.
• The Minister of Communications announced the approval of technology neutrality for MTN Ghana, and has directed the National Communications Authority (NCA) to allocate additional spectrum to both MTN and Telecel Ghana. This strategic policy shift is aimed at enabling telecom operators to optimize their existing infrastructure and enhance network quality and coverage. In tandem with this announcement, the Minister emphasized that the NCA will implement rigorous oversight, warning that operators who fail to demonstrate measurable improvements in service delivery will face regulatory penalties. We believe MTN Ghana is strongly positioned to benefit from this development given existing infrastructure leadership. The additional spectrum should enable MTN to accelerate rural network expansion, improve service quality, and support increasing data demand, particularly in underserved areas. Over the short to medium term, we expect these factors to reinforce revenue growth momentum, strengthen market dominance, and support the company’s broader strategic objectives under its Ambition 2025 framework.

Nigeria

• The NGX-ASI inched down by 0.9% w/w to settle at 104,563.3 points, bringing the year-to-date return to 1.6% and 30-day loss to 2.7%. The bearish movement in the index was underpinned by losses in mid-to-large caps.
• Aggregate market turnover spiked by 83.0% w/w to USD 31.0mn, with Guaranty Trust Holding Co Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 25.9% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured decliners with a 67% ratio. VFD Group Plc (+53.9% w/w | NGN 87.7) led the gainers’ chart, while Lasaco Assurance Plc(-12.8% w/w | NGN 2.0) was the worst laggard.
• Fitch Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating to ‘B’ with a Stable Outlook, reflecting growing investor confidence on the back of ongoing structural reforms. The upgrade follows bold policy actions by the government, including the elimination of long-standing fuel subsidies and a shift toward a market-determined foreign exchange regime, replacing the previously managed currency peg implemented over 18 months ago. The improved rating underscores a moderation in macroeconomic risks, which has helped bolster Nigeria’s resilience despite persistent domestic challenges and external headwinds. According to Fitch, the Stable Outlook reflects expectations that the current macroeconomic policy direction will continue to support FX market liberalization, gradually reduce inflationary pressures, and strengthen overall economic governance. Moreover, Fitch anticipates that easing foreign currency supply constraints and the continuation of energy sector reforms will enhance external liquidity, reinforcing current account surpluses and reducing external vulnerabilities. The outlook suggests that while inflation is likely to remain elevated relative to peers, the trajectory is expected to improve, aided by a more responsive policy framework.

Kenya

• The NSE-ASI declined by 3.6% w/w to settle at 126.8 points, bringing the year-to-date return to 2.7% and 30-day loss to 4.4%. The downward movement in the index was due to losses in mid-to-large caps.
• Aggregate market turnover increased by 16.9% w/w to USD 12.4mn, with Safaricom Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 36.0% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured decliners with a 76% ratio. Sanlam Kenya Plc(+20.3% w/w | KES 10.4) led the gainers’ chart, while Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd (-10.5% w/w | KES 3.2) was the worst laggard.
• At its April 2025 meeting, the Central Bank of Kenya’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) delivered a surprise 75bps cut, lowering the Central Bank Rate (CBR) to 10.0%. This marks the fifth consecutive rate reduction in the current monetary easing cycle, reinforcing the CBK’s commitment to stimulating economic activity amid a well contained easing inflation pressure and KES liquidity concerns. Looking ahead, the CBK signaled expectations for a successor programme with the IMF, with discussions set to commence during the upcoming IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings. According to the Bank, the forthcoming arrangement is likely to be a financed instrument under normal access, rather than one that falls under the more stringent exceptional access framework. Based on our estimates, a normal access programme would be capped at approximately SDR 370.5mn (USD 496.2mn), closely aligned with the average disbursement of SDR 369.4mn across the four most recent programme reviews. However, given the relatively limited funding envelope under normal access and the high bar required to qualify for exceptional access, we do not anticipate the immediate rollout of a new IMF programme within the next 18 months.