In brief
- As widely expected, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) MPC meeting held in November 2024 lowered the repo rate by 25bps to 7.75%. The decision was the second consecutive unanimous outcome, but unlike the September 2024 MPC meeting, a 50bps rate cut was not considered.
- Refreshingly, the statement spoke of “outlook dependency”, departing from the data dependency tone of previous statements. Aligned to this, the MPC painted three scenarios clouding inflation outlook.
- South Africa’s risk premium has reduced somewhat following the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) mid this year, cementing the much-needed reform agenda. Relatedly, the S&P revised South Africa’s ratings outlook from stable to positive.
- Forecast for core inflation was revised marginally lower by 20bps to 3.9% in 2025. Broadly, the MPC expects headline inflation to remain steady at 4.0% in 2025, with electricity CPI and food inflation offering offsets to the softer core inflation.
- With the implementation of the two-pots pension withdrawals that started in September 2024, the authorities provided an update regarding the revised estimated withdrawals. Following the 2024 MTBPS statement and the revenue outturn during this FY25 to-date, SARB revised upwards the withdrawals in 2024 and 2025 by ZAR 11.0bn and ZAR 5.0bn, respectively.
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